Handy & Ultramax Sectors: A Market Bracing for Change

 

 

As we sail through the final days

 of April, the Handy and Ultramax sectors are navigating uncertain waters.  Market sentiment varies greatly depending on region and cargo flows, while looming developments could soon alter the prevailing winds.

A shift is on the horizon. After weeks of sluggish performance across many shipping routes, the Handy and Ultramax sectors are setting course toward what could be a pivotal market correction. A combination of tightening supply, patchy demand, and critical policy shifts — especially from Washington — is stirring expectations across the fleet.

 

• US Gulf and East Coast (USG/USEC):   Handysize market struggled last week, weighed down by increasing tonnage and thin activity. Rates weakened under the pressure. However, the looming impact of Trump’s USTR tariff measures could soon reverse the trend, potentially boosting American exports and opening the sails for a much-needed market lift.

• East Coast South America (ECSA):  Fortunes diverged: the south enjoyed robust demand and tighter supply, while the north remained steady but unspectacular. If southern demand keeps steaming ahead, we may see this sector take the lead into May.

• Continent:  remains becalmed. Fierce competition among owners forced a downward spiral in freight levels. A spark in demand is badly needed to turn the tide.

• Mediterranean :  Market saw another week slip away, with stagnant tonnage lists and scarce new inquiries pushing rates lower. Although Western Med showed more resilience, the region as a whole heads into the new week under grey skies.

• Middle East Gulf/India (MEG/India):  prompt cargoes led to some waiting, but strong movements to Bangladesh offer hope for next week.

• Southeast Asia/Far East:  Presented a divided front: Aussie-origin cargoes firmed the southern markets, while the north stayed flat. With the May Day holidays looming, some late chartering activity could inject short-term energy.

 

• USG/USEC  : The story was one of long waits and difficult choices — wait at anchorage or ballast south   ? Owners will be watching closely for the impact of USTR tariff changes, which could trigger a spike in outbound cargo demand.

• East Coast South America (ECSA): The Ultramax sector steamed ahead on the back of a rich cargo list, with transatlantic trips particularly strong. The gap between north and south is closing, and the market looks poised to stay on a positive track.

• Continent: The Continent offered little to celebrate: slow demand left many owners idle, but with vessel supply thinning, a potential recovery is in sight.

• Mediterranean: Trades felt the Easter break’s weight, with low cargo availability and long vessel lists. It’s shaping up to be a challenging week ahead.

• South Africa (SAFR):  Markets were muted over Easter, but consistent cargo flows toward India and the Far East suggest that a firmer tone will prevail as we move into May.

• Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India): A midweek boost toward Bangladesh lifted spirits. As the monsoon season approaches, we expect charterers to accelerate their programs, keeping the market active over the next few weeks.

• Southeast Asia/Far East (SE Asia/FEast): Saw little excitement up north — NOPAC demand couldn’t carry the day — but southern routes ex-Indonesia maintained a firm footing, likely to continue into early May.

 

 

Quick Take: USTR Tariffs and What’s Next

 

With the Trump administration announcing fresh USTR tariffs aimed at strengthening U.S. exports, we are standing at the brink of potentially major shifts in the dry bulk market. My view is clear: if these policies bite as expected, we could see a tightening in vessel supply in the Americas, better rates, and a broader rebound in Atlantic trades. Timing will be key — but the first signs of movement could come faster than many expect.

 

Stay sharp — new winds are coming.

 

 

 

Disclaimer

This report and the information contained herein are for general information only and does not constitute an investment advice